February, 15, 2019

LRF Documentation

The probabilities for the below, near or above normal tercile categories are shown for various lead times, ranging from months 1-7 for monthly forecast period and from quarter 1 to 5 for seasonnal forecast (next three month). Parameters displayed oare

  • Land/Sea Temperature
  • Maximum Temperature
  • Minimum Temperature
  • Temperature at 850hPa
  • Zonal Wind at 850hPa
  • Meridional Wind 850hpa
  • Precipitation
  • Sea Level Pressure

In each case, 6 maps are dispalyed for probilities :

  • Probabilities for Below normal tercile
  • Probabilities for Normal tercile
  • Probabilities for Above normal tercile
  • Probabilities for Highest Sextiles
  • Probabilities for Lowest Sextiles
  • Probabilities exceeding median

Anomalies maps and standard anomalies maps are also provided.

The probabilities (or chances) are generated from the Arpege Climate Systeme 5

More information abour Long Range Forecast and GPCs can be found here