April, 25, 2019

Season Outlook for October 2018 to March 2019 

THE TWENTY SECOND ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SARCOF-22)
The Twenty Second Annual Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-22) was held in Lusaka, Zambia from 22 to 24 August 2018 to present a consensus outlook for the 2018/2019 rainfall season over the SADC region. Climate scientists from the SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated the Outlook. Additional inputs were acquired from other global climate prediction centres namely, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), Météo-France and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Korea Meteorological Agency, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office. This Outlook covers the major rainfall season from October 2018 to March 2019. The Outlook is presented in overlapping three-monthly periods as follows: October-November-December (OND); November-December-January (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and January- February-March (JFM). For temperature, it covers only for October-November-December and January-February-March.

This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal (overlapping three-monthly) time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal). Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.

OUTLOOK SUMMARY
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2018 and above normal rainfall over the northern half of the United Republic of Tanzania. The January to March (JFM) 2019 period will be normal to below normal rainfall for most of the region. However, northern most Angola, central most Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), south-western Tanzania, northern Malawi, and the islands states of Comoros, Mauritius, easternmost Madagascar and Seychelles are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall throughout the 2018/19 rainy season. Mean temperatures will be normal to above normal for most of the 2018/19 season over the entire SADC region except for Northeast of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), north-western Tanzania, extreme south of Mozambique, Eswatini, extreme east of South Africa, central South Africa, half north of Lesotho, Extreme southwest of Botswana, south of Namibia, northwest of South Africa with the likelihood of above normal temperature. The complete statement and advisory may be found at the links below:

SARCOF-22 Statement
Climate Early Warning Advisory Note

 

RAINFALL OUTLOOK

   2018OND rainfall       2018NDJ rainfall
Rainfall Outlook for 2018 Oct, Nov, Dec Rainfall Outlook for 2018 Nov, Dec, 2019 Jan
   2018DJF rainfall       2019JFM rainfall
Rainfall Outlook for 2018 Dec, 2019 Jan, Feb Rainfall Outlook for 2019 Jan, Feb, Mar

 

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

2018OND temperature 2019JFM temperature
Temperature Outlook for 2018 Oct, Nov, Dec Temperature Outlook for 2019 Jan, Feb, Mar